🥇 #1 Joe Ryan (RHP) — Matchup: OAK @ MIN | Ace Metrix: 8.1

💰 FD Salary: $10,200
📊 FPPG: 36.2

🔎 Component Score

• 🔥 K Upside: 8.4
• 🛡 Run Prevention: 8.1
• 🏆 Win Equity: 8.7
• 🎲 Leverage: 6.8
• ⏱ Role / Pitch Count: 9.0

Why we like it: Ryan’s efficiency + strike-throwing profile plays at home, and he’s carried strong run prevention deep into the year. Recent form supports a cash-viable floor with path to ceiling if whiffs tick up.

• 📅 Probable start: Tonight vs OAK (home).
• 📈 Snapshot: Season line entering tonight includes double-digit QS and sub-.210 BAA in recent notes.
• 🧩 Ace Metrix read: K Upside = Medium-High • Run Prevention = High • Win Equity = High • Leverage = Medium • Role/PC = Full
• 💡 DFS Edge: Strong cash anchor with legit ceiling; suitable as your single-pitcher spend-up.

🥈 #2 Carlos Rodón (LHP) — Matchup: NYY @ TB | Ace Metrix: 7.8

💰 FD Salary: $9,800
📊 FPPG: 32.5

🔎 Component Score

• 🔥 K Upside: 8.7
• 🛡 Run Prevention: 7.4
• 🏆 Win Equity: 7.9
• 🎲 Leverage: 6.0
• ⏱ Role / Pitch Count: 8.3

Why we like it: Premium lefty velocity with a slider that can neutralize right-handed thump. When first-pitch strikes land, he stacks strikeouts while limiting barrels.

• 📅 Probable start: Tonight at TB.
• 📈 Snapshot: Recent run features solid K-BB trends and consistent mid-game staying power.
• 🧩 Ace Metrix read: K Upside = High • Run Prevention = High-Medium • Win Equity = High • Leverage = Medium • Role/PC = Full
• 💡 DFS Edge: Premium strikeout ceiling at a slight discount to Ryan; strong one-pitcher alternative for both cash and GPP.

🥉 #3 Hunter Greene (RHP) — Matchup: CIN @ LAA | Ace Metrix: 7.6

💰 FD Salary: $9,400
📊 FPPG: 31.1

🔎 Component Score

• 🔥 K Upside: 8.9
• 🛡 Run Prevention: 7.1
• 🏆 Win Equity: 7.4
• 🎲 Leverage: 6.5
• ⏱ Role / Pitch Count: 8.0

Why we like it: Upper-90s fastball with improving command; when ahead in counts, slider finish creates double-digit K paths.

• 📅 Probable start: Tonight at LAA.
• 📈 Snapshot: Rising put-away rates with limited hard contact when sequencing fastball/slider.
• 🧩 Ace Metrix read: K Upside = High • Run Prevention = Medium-High • Win Equity = Medium-High • Leverage = Medium • Role/PC = Full
• 💡 DFS Edge: Elite GPP ceiling; higher variance than Ryan/Rodón but slate-winning upside as your single pitcher.

#4 Nick Pivetta (RHP) — Matchup: SF @ SD | Ace Metrix: 7.4

💰 FD Salary: $8,600
📊 FPPG: 28.4

🔎 Component Score

• 🔥 K Upside: 7.5
• 🛡 Run Prevention: 7.6
• 🏆 Win Equity: 7.7
• 🎲 Leverage: 6.2
• ⏱ Role / Pitch Count: 8.1

Why we like it: Fastball/slider combo has been crisp and Petco’s park factors bolster run prevention.

• 📅 Probable start: Tonight at SD.
• 📈 Snapshot: Efficiency up; deeper outings when the slider lands early in counts.
• 🧩 Ace Metrix read: K Upside = Medium-High • Run Prevention = High • Win Equity = High • Leverage = Medium • Role/PC = Full
• 💡 DFS Edge: Salary saver compared to top spends; viable one-off if you want to allocate more cap to bats.

#5 Merrill Kelly (RHP) — Matchup: TEX @ KC | Ace Metrix: 7.2

💰 FD Salary: $8,300
📊 FPPG: 27.6

🔎 Component Score

• 🔥 K Upside: 6.9
• 🛡 Run Prevention: 7.7
• 🏆 Win Equity: 7.5
• 🎲 Leverage: 6.4
• ⏱ Role / Pitch Count: 8.0

Why we like it: Veteran command travels; Kauffman suppresses HRs, reinforcing floor.

• 📅 Probable start: Tonight at KC.
• 📈 Snapshot: Stable WHIP trends; early contact on edges limits damage.
• 🧩 Ace Metrix read: K Upside = Medium • Run Prevention = High • Win Equity = Medium-High • Leverage = Medium-High • Role/PC = Full
• 💡 DFS Edge: Floor-first profile for single-P builds when you prefer cap flexibility and reduced volatility.

#6 Shane Baz (RHP) — Matchup: NYY @ TB | Ace Metrix: 6.9

💰 FD Salary: $7,900
📊 FPPG: 25.9

🔎 Component Score

• 🔥 K Upside: 8.2
• 🛡 Run Prevention: 6.3
• 🏆 Win Equity: 6.9
• 🎲 Leverage: 7.5
• ⏱ Role / Pitch Count: 7.4

Why we like it: Electric strikeout stuff that can pay off quickly; efficiency vs patient lineups is the swing factor.

• 📅 Probable start: Tonight vs NYY.
• 📈 Snapshot: Flashes of dominance tempered by occasional walk spikes.
• 🧩 Ace Metrix read: K Upside = High • Run Prevention = Medium-Low • Win Equity = Medium • Leverage = High • Role/PC = Guarded
• 💡 DFS Edge: Pure contrarian; one-pitcher dart for tournaments where you’re chasing strikeout ceiling.

🏁 Quick Strategy (Single-Pitcher FanDuel)

• Cash Anchor: Joe Ryan (safest floor/ceiling blend). Carlos Rodón is a strong spend-down alternative with premium K ceiling.
• GPP Ceiling: Hunter Greene for raw Ks; Shane Baz as high-variance leverage if ownership condenses up top.
• Value Angle: Nick Pivetta or Merrill Kelly when you want extra salary for bats while maintaining competitive projection.